It’s July and I’m stuck in Dubai.

Don’t let the photos of glitzy beach clubs, the shimmering ocean and dune-bashing influencers fool you, it’s scorching hot. I grew up in Australia so when I mean hot, it’s not just a cute 37°C once in a while.

The day starts at 35°C and reaches 40, sometimes even 50 degrees in the middle of the day. Those photos were probably taken at about 6am or back in winter.

What does the weather have to do with airfare prices?

While it’s my home away from home and I love living here, the United Arab Emirates is not really where you want to be from June to August. And yet somehow, airfares are fetching $3,539 for a return ticket from Sydney to Dubai when flights should easily cost half to travel in what’s easily the worst time of year to be here.

Why are airfare prices soaring?

You only need to look at chaotic scenes and endless queues in airports across the world to understand: travel is back with a vengeance. The floodgates are open and everyone is jumping on a flight.

Coupled with Covid staffing cutbacks still in place and cancelled flights, demand is even higher.

“Demand for flights spiked at a time when airline capacity was poor and this saw airfares surge,” explains Chief Economist at AMP, Shane Oliver.

And it’s likely to stay that way for the meantime according to Brent Novak, General Manager at Flight Centre Australia.

“Until international airlines return to full workforce capacity that they reduced as a result of the pandemic, we’re going to see demand for air travel exceed supply for a number of months yet, and this is going to keep upward pressure on airfares, especially to destinations in Europe and North America.”

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Adding fuel to the fire

Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to impact oil prices, with the knock on effect on jet fuel keeping airfares high.

But Novak feels airlines should ensure the increase reflects the actual increased cost of fuel for that journey, rather than a rigid fuel surcharge.

“In this scenario, a person travelling on a shorter flight would theoretically pay less than a person travelling on longer trips to North America and Europe.”

When will they come down?

Oliver believes they will become cheaper, but it may take a while.

“Going forward, airlines will gradually put more planes in the air boosting supply and meanwhile demand will likely fall again reflecting the deteriorating economy – on the back of rising rates and cost of living pressures – and in response to bad experiences with air travel.”

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How can I get the best deal?

No destination should be off the table. Yes the Amalfi Coast is amazing but this is a perfect opportunity to travel somewhere you’ve never considered. Sites like com allows you to type ‘anywhere’ as your destination and will highlight the cheapest fares around the world.

Mix and match. Instead of booking a flight to Europe with the same airline, DIY and make your itinerary using a mix of airlines. This is a bit risky if there are any flight delays for a connecting flight and making sure your luggage follows you. Book travel insurance to make sure you’re covered if anything goes wrong.

Embrace the stopover. The mix and match technique will lead to more transit time in airports. Instead of waiting in an airport for hours, spend a few nights in the city. It minimises the luggage issue and stress of missing your next flight.

Book early. “Our advice to anyone trying to get the lowest airfares to North America is to book early, ideally more than six months in advance,” says Novak. “We’re looking forward to airlines increasing their capacity by next year’s northern summer, and this may help ease the upward pressure on airfares.”

This article originally appeared on escape.com.au. It has been reproduced here with permission. 

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