If you’ve been on a plane, you’ve probably experienced some kind of turbulence. It’s that jolting sensation where the ground feels like it’s dropped out from beneath you, as if the plane has fallen a few feet in the sky. Turbulence ranges from mild to severe. Most turbulence is caused by up and downdrafts of wind, which happen everywhere, but are particularly bad in areas where there are mountains, jet streams and storms. Some airlines are trialling turbulence tracking technology, but it is difficult to always accurately predict.

Pilots monitor weather reports, as well as reports of turbulence from other pilots. This helps them plan a route that will (hopefully) avoid turbulence. But it’s far from a perfect model – weather reports can’t predict turbulence at airplane-sized scales, and pilots frequently misreport turbulent locations by dozens of kilometres. Weather forecasts can help, as well as pilot reports. Weather models can’t predict turbulence at airplane-sized scales, and pilots frequently misreport turbulent locations by many dozens of miles. In many cases, pilots can actually see air turbulence on the horizon in the form of thunderstorms, but atmospheric pressure, jet streams, cold or warm weather and even how air behaves around mountains are all factors.

It seems climate change is increasing the instances of ‘clear air’ turbulence. Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading in the UK has estimated that by 2050 to 2080, changes to the jet stream from climate change will result in an increase of clear-air turbulence of 113 percent over North America, and up to 181 percent over the North Atlantic. The duration of turbulence is also increasing according to the study. They found that in a typical spot in the North Atlantic – one of the world’s busiest routes – the total annual duration of severe turbulence increased by 55 per cent from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020. NASA has predicted that rising temperatures across the globe will see air less dense – which means a greater challenge for planes actually leaving the ground and aircraft loads needing to be reduced.

There are three key things you can do to protect yourself from turbulence. First, keep your seatbelt on whenever seated – turbulence can be unpredictable. Secondly, don’t go to the bathroom when the seatbelt light is on. Thirdly, don’t have any heavy objects out.

The best place to sit to avoid feeling the effects of turbulence is the centre of the plane, near the wingspan, closer to its centre of gravity. The back of the plane tends to feel the effects more – as it is affected by the wind hitting the tail of the aircraft.